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Defense Leaders Call for Clean Energy Investments As Part of NATO Spending Goals

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Today, more than a dozen distinguished European and UK defense leaders released an open letter calling for clean energy investments to be included in NATO’s 1.5% non-core defense spending target, set at the summit in June 2025. International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) Chair, General Tom Middendorp, IMCCS Senior Advisor, General Richard Nugee, and IMCCS member, Vice Admiral Ben Bekkering, are among the signatories.  

As the letter argues:

“Including clean energy in the 1.5% bracket will bolster European security, safeguard vital civilian infrastructure from attack, and protect Europe from the tyranny of fossil fuel strongmen. Increased military spending is a vital deterrent. However it is a false dichotomy to argue that it should come at the expense of action to tackle climate change, as some politicians and commentators have argued.

The NATO 1.5% target presents a historic opportunity to incentivise investments in clean energy that will keep us safe, bolster our economies, and help protect the planet.”

Read the full letter, and see the signatories here

IMCCS at the 75th NATO Summit: Launching the Climate Change and Security Center of Excellence and the World Climate and Security Report

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Last week, the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) helped ensure climate risks were a key part of the conversation at the 75th NATO Summit in Washington, DC. 

On 9 July, IMCCS Chair General Tom Middendorp (Ret) and IMCCS Secretary General Sherri Goodman joined the official launch of the new Climate Change and Security NATO Center of Excellence (CCASCOE). This new Center will provide a key hub for NATO allies and partners to share best practices and learn about tackling climate security risks. As Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau noted in his opening remarks at the event, “Overall, climate change risks creating a less stable, less prosperous and less secure world. That is why we act.” Watch PM Trudeau’s remarks here. 

The launch of the Climate Change and Security NATO Center of Excellence at the Canadian Embassy in Washington, July 9, 2024.

On 10 July, IMCCS organized a breakfast discussion with US, NATO, and allied defense and security leaders featuring the release of its annual “World Climate and Security Report,” a global assessment of the security dimensions of a changing climate and effective means to address them. This year’s report focused on military innovation and the climate challenge, recommending NATO militaries focus on procurement practices to support the clean energy transition and emissions reductions. The event convened military, diplomatic, and private sector leaders to discuss the report’s findings and share best practices regarding the role of militaries in advancing clean energy research, development, and deployment.

US, NATO, and allied defense leaders discuss the launch of the World Climate and Security Report 2024 in Washington, July 10, 2024.

Key Takeaways

Below is a summary of the key takeaways from the World Climate and Security Report discussion:

Innovation in Acquisition and Procurement

  • To reduce their impact on carbon emissions and confront the climate challenge, defense organizations must broaden their conceptions of innovation to include their procurement policies, processes, and requirements. Defense research and development now represents a much smaller share of the global R&D sector. Therefore, it will primarily be commercial R&D that will help militaries reduce their operational footprint. The private sector has already developed some of these necessary technologies. The size and influence of military procurement budgets create an opportunity for acquisitions leaders to steer markets toward policy outcomes.
  • Defense organizations should work to promote and leverage public-private partnerships. Military objectives are not incompatible with the sustainability goals of the civilian sectors. For example, the operational carbon footprint of the US Department of Defense is dominated by fuel use for aviation, but addressing fuel use is also a critical security concern as it is logistically complicated, expensive, and a target for adversaries. At the same time, some US airlines use more fuel than the US Air Force and are investing in their own research to enhance sustainability and improve efficiency. Thus, defense organizations can harness these synergies to support innovation that simultaneously prioritizes military missions and helps reduce emissions.

Collaboration with Allies and Partners

  • NATO and its partners must coordinate their approaches to military innovation and the clean energy transition. These collective efforts will help strengthen the alliance’s effectiveness and enhance internal messaging within defense ministries and to domestic audiences.
  • As NATO militaries adopt and integrate new technologies that support emissions reductions, standardization will be essential to ensure interoperability (i.e., the ability of different national militaries to cooperate effectively). Although there have been some measures to establish common standards, participants acknowledged that NATO forces still largely operate in silos. For instance, at a training exercise, certain allied forces found that their traditional diesel generators were incompatible with newer, hybrid generators.
  • In large markets, like the battery market, individual militaries do not have much buying power. Standardization would enable the alliance to combine its buying power, increasing its ability to impact the private sector, send market signals, and catalyze commercial research.

Challenges and Vulnerabilities

  • NATO defense organizations may face difficulties and constraints in implementing changes to their acquisition processes and driving innovation. Several participants noted that defense organizations are generally risk-averse. Armed forces often have immediate equipment needs, especially given increasing global instability, which makes them less likely to invest in unproven technologies. 
  • Organizational priorities, like keeping costs low, and the complexity and rigidity of government procurement policies, can further hinder investment. However, participants emphasized that without an initial protective market provided by defense departments, many next-generation technology firms will be unable to compete with foreign companies, particularly from China. The industry also lacks a robust structure to facilitate public-private conversations. Thus, changing the acquisition and procurement process will require a shift toward a “venture mindset,” and militaries should work to develop a stronger network of innovators and buyers.
  • As part of the “geopolitics of blame” for the climate crisis, there are growing signs of countries placing blame on the militaries of the Global North. For example, Djibouti’s Sovereign Carbon Initiative, which requires emitters to pay a carbon contribution, includes foreign armed forces established in the country. This undercurrent of blame could make advancing policy and process changes more difficult.

Under Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s leadership, NATO has been at the forefront of the climate security mission for many years. The launch of the new Center of Excellence, combined with the release of the 3rd edition of the NATO Climate and Security Impact Report, demonstrates continued progress from the alliance on this critical threat. Meanwhile, the 2024 WCSR provides a detailed roadmap for NATO countries to navigate the transition to clean energy, leveraging military R&D, procurement and supply chains, and public/private partnerships. The official NATO communique notes, “Climate change is a defining challenge with a profound impact on our security.” IMCCS is proud to contribute to NATO’s work in this area and looks forward to partnering with the Climate Change and Security NATO Center of Excellence  in the coming months. 

World Climate and Security Report 2024

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A Product of the Expert Group of the International Military Council on Climate and Security

Authors: John Conger, Emil Havstrup, Laura Jasper, Lennaert Jonkers, Irina Patrahau, Sami Ramdani, Louise van Schaik, and Julia Tasse
Editors: Francesco Femia and Erin Sikorksy

Access the full report

Executive Summary

With climate impacts accelerating and the energy transition underway, militaries are increasingly considering the carbon footprint of their operations, infrastructure, and supply chains. Today, though there are gaps in measuring, reporting, and reducing these emissions, many countries already have initiatives to reduce their carbon footprint and improve the efficiency of their militaries.

This report analyzes the urgency of climate change for militaries and explores how military research and innovation might enable both emissions reduction and greater resilience of infrastructure and operations to climate impacts while improving the self-sufficiency of military units and facilities. While the report should be useful to militaries around the world, its recommendations focus on NATO member state militaries.

The report reveals a need for militaries to adopt a comprehensive approach to the climate challenge. This should include research and development (R&D) but also a wider range of policy and procurement changes. The climate crisis is not a challenge that can be solved by a single tool such as military R&D, but rather a broader set of partnerships, policies, and investments that make up a more complete sustainability toolbox.

There are, of course, limits to military research as a solution to climate mitigation and adaptation challenges. For example, when it comes to operational equipment, the decades-long lifecycle of this equipment means that large-scale implementation of new technologies will require an extended transition period. Progress is still important, but there is not a singular or immediate solution to meet emissions targets. Furthermore, military research focuses on mission-specific applications. While there are opportunities within this scope to explore resilience to climate impacts as a mission necessity (e.g. energy resilience on bases impacted by disasters), research on emissions reduction is much more likely to come out of commercial and civilian research efforts.

Yet, despite these constraints, addressing the environmental costs of militaries remains beneficial. Increased efficiency in energy use of platforms, even when incremental, has benefits both for operational capability and reduction of carbon footprint. Hybrid vehicles are a logical innovation that requires little to no change in supporting logistics systems and reduces the logistics burden. Artificial intelligence will increase efficiency, reduce costly accommodations for military personnel in vehicles, and potentially propel new avenues for research. It will be most effective to pursue decarbonization technologies that synergize with other advances that are occurring simultaneously. With these advances, gains in energy efficiency will also reduce the need to transport and secure fossil fuels, limit price volatility, increase self-sufficiency, and reduce environmental damages caused by fuel leaks or spills.

Research programs on technologies including, but not limited to, hybrid vehicles and energy use management by artificial intelligence provide pathways to innovations that will improve energy efficiency and the performance of systems in use. However, the best opportunities to reduce the military’s carbon footprint will be found in innovative procurement and policy approaches. While military research does not represent as large a portion of the global research enterprise as it once did, military procurement budgets remain extremely influential, often representing the single largest customer in their respective nations. As a result, acquisition choices can catalyze and steer markets toward particular policy outcomes even while prioritizing military missions.

After analyzing the urgency of climate change for the world’s militaries and assessing progress, shortfalls, and opportunities for emissions reduction and technology advancement in military operations, infrastructure, and supply chains, this report makes a few key recommendations.

  1. Approach military innovation in an integrated and time-sensitive way. In addition to innovating to achieve energy efficiency, militaries must adapt to the impacts of climate change. Technologies that serve both purposes should be prioritized. Adopting these technologies early will give militaries an edge in both operations and international and domestic reputation.
  2. Foster public-private partnerships to leverage civilian technological advances. Many useful innovations for the military will be made in the civilian sector, and militaries should support those advances. For example, given that fuel use, especially for aviation, is one of the largest sources of operational emissions, militaries should send strong market signals for sustainable aviation fuel.
  3. Set targets for infrastructure decarbonization and strategies for emissions monitoring and sustainable procurement. Clear emissions reduction targets and monitoring strategies are the first steps to achieving military infrastructure decarbonization, including for products in the military’s supply chain (scope 3 emissions). A key way to achieve these targets is for militaries to procure carbon-free electricity for fixed installations. This can be done through targeted power purchase agreements or through the broader greening of the electric grid. Notably, the technologies that will enable this electricity shift already exist commercially.
  4. Leverage education and training for climate literacy. Technological solutions are not enough: a climate-literate workforce is essential for transforming how militaries understand and respond to the opportunities and challenges arising from decarbonization. Given shared challenges and goals, there is an opportunity for NATO member state militaries, for example, to catalyze transnational cooperation on climate training.
  5. Incentivize the energy transition within military supply chains, leading to lower defense industry emissions. Procurement preferences for and investments into lower embedded carbon levels in the products militaries purchase could accelerate this transition. For example, the EU could give companies that demonstrate a clear commitment to achieving net zero through realistic targets access to more credit by reforming their taxonomy and lending practices.

Many of these recommendations can be encapsulated in one central tenet—acquisition and procurement innovation. To address the climate challenge, militaries will need to think fundamentally differently about how and what they buy. This encompasses procurement policy, process, and requirements that meet both mission and sustainability requirements. Military acquisition leaders should send this market signal to civilian and commercial energy researchers and catalyze clean energy research by committing to purchase the products that are developed.

By broadening the framing of innovation to encompass not only research programs but a fundamentally different way of managing military and defense organizations, military innovation can help reduce its impact on carbon emissions and help militaries confront the climate challenge.

The report concludes that military innovation can indeed make a significant contribution to addressing the climate challenge, but militaries need stronger partnerships with other government agencies, policymakers, and private industry to do so in a manner that’s adequately commensurate to the challenge.

Read the full WCSR 2024 at the Council on Strategic Risks

DASD Caroline Baxter On Integrating Climate Change into Professional Military Education

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On January 24, 2024, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for Force Education and Training Caroline Baxter spoke to attendees of the conference “Integrating Climate Change into Professional Military Education” co-hosted by the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) and the Swedish Defence University.

DASD Baxter’s remarks are published below with permission from the U.S. Department of Defense. You can read more about the conference and find follow-up resources on gaming, training, and curriculum development in the full conference report. 

Introduction 

Thank you, Erin, and thanks to the International Military Council on Climate & Security and the Swedish Defence University organizers for inviting me to speak today. I also want to express my gratitude to you for allowing me to give these remarks virtually. This topic is incredibly important to the Department of Defense, and I regret that I could not join you in Stockholm for this event. 

My portfolio includes military training and exercises, defense language programs, career broadening opportunities like fellowships, and two of the topics for which we are here to discuss today—professional military education and climate literacy. I chair the Department’s Climate Literacy Sub￾Working Group, which is tasked with integrating climate considerations into DoD education and training programs. Professional military education—or PME—has been a cornerstone of our climate literacy work. I will talk more about our progress in this area a bit later, and share some best practices and lessons learned from our work. 

Read the full remarks

Integrating Climate Change into Professional Military Education: Event Summary

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By Elsa Barron and Erin Sikorsky

Edited by Tom Ellison and Francesco Femia

Download full PDF

Introduction

Conference Attendees Outside Swedish Defence University. (Andreas G. Warne)

On January 24-25 in Stockholm, Sweden, the International Military Council on Climate & Security partnered with the Swedish Defence University to host the inaugural conference, “Integrating Climate Change into Professional Military Education.” The conference brought together military educators and climate security experts to share best practices and lessons learned regarding climate security-related training, gaming, and curriculum development. Ms. Caroline Baxter, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for Force Education and Training for the US Department of Defense (DoD), provided keynote remarks about the efforts of her office to develop new force-wide guidance and programs on climate security topics.

Overall, the group was in strong agreement that the impact of climate change on security is a threat military education cannot afford to ignore. In the past eighteen months, militaries in nearly 70 countries have been deployed to respond to climate-related disasters. Participants around the table shared multiple concrete examples from their careers in which weather or climate-related hazards affected military readiness and operations. To prepare the future force and navigate the security environment of the coming decades, militaries need to embrace innovative educational approaches to climate security.

New Book: ‘The Climate General’ Explores the Critical Link Between Climate Change and Global Security

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Cross-posted from the Planetary Security Initiative

With the conclusion of COP28, renowned author and former Chief of Defence of the Dutch Armed Forces, General Tom Middendorp, is releasing a groundbreaking new book, The Climate General, shedding light on the profound connection between climate change and global security:

“COP28 focused more than ever on the role of fossil fuels in climate change, and we see just how complex and difficult the subject is for the international community to tackle. This is the first time in history that we need to replace one source of energy by another, instead of adding another source. It also took place against a backdrop of wars, which are extremely destructive in nature.

As a former service member I know what the price of war is. Where there is war, there is no room for climate mitigation and adaptation. This makes it imperative to work on both ends. Climate and conflicts are two sides of the same coin; we need security and stability to address climate change, while dealing with climate change can help reduce the conflict-sensitivity in fragile areas around the world.

So the pressing question, which is both simple and complex, is the following: How can the world cope with all these dangers simultaneously? How can we match the urgent with the important?”

In ‘The Climate General’, General Middendorp draws upon his extensive operational experience and deep knowledge of geopolitical dynamics to provide readers with a unique perspective on this complex issue. He demonstrates how climate-related conflicts, extremism, and migratory flows are interconnected in today’s world. Through captivating storytelling and meticulous research, he brings to light the challenges posed by climate change and presents a clear vision for a sustainable future. He advocates for a combination of mitigation and adaptation strategies, emphasizing the importance of technological advancements and collaboration in addressing climate security challenges.

“The Climate General provides invaluable insights and serves as a powerful catalyst for change,” said Audrey Carpentier, co-founder at Éditions La Butineuse. “General Middendorp not only brings attention to the urgency of the problem, but also presents practical solutions and strategies that have the potential to create a brighter future.”

“Today I lead a global network of security leaders from more than 40 countries, the IMCCS, supported by a consortium of research institutes. We all share a firm belief that climate change and security are closely related, as climate change leads to more insecurity and security is needed to address climate change. This requires us to join forces and tackle problems at the source in a more comprehensive way”, says Middendorp.

The Climate General is recommended for policymakers, academics, security specialists, and anyone concerned about the future of our global society and planet.

Young Leaders Hope for Action After the NATO Summit

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By Elsa Barron and the IMCCS Young Leaders Network

Not long after leaders at the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius identified climate change as a “defining challenge of our time,” the alliance was called upon to support one of its members facing climate disaster. On August 7th, NATO responded to extreme flooding in Slovenia, providing support that included helicopters, modular bridges, excavators, and engineering expertise from more than five alliance members. As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on a phone call to Slovenia’s Prime Minister,

“The increasing frequency of extreme weather highlights the profound impact of climate change.” 

In light of climate change’s particularly profound impact on young people and increasing importance to NATO, the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS), with support from the U.S. Mission to NATO, sent us – a delegation of young leaders – to the 2023 NATO Public Forum in Vilnius. Our group included Pau Alvarez Aragones (Spain), Diana Garlytska (Ukraine/ Lithuania), Marieke Jacobs (Netherlands), Michelle Ramirez (United States), George Tavridis (Greece), and Ytze de Vries (Netherlands), accompanied by the Center for Climate and Security’s Elsa Barron and IMCCS Secretary General Sherri Goodman. We entered the Public Forum with a set of climate security priorities identified by a larger young leaders network and left Vilnius with three revitalized recommendations for NATO, below.

First, continued youth engagement is critical, and requires a strategic approach. In the future, we see value in connecting multiple existing youth initiatives across the alliance to create a more diverse network in which young leaders can collaborate to confront and prevent climate change risks. Furthermore, we emphasize the eagerness of young people to take action on non-traditional threats and believe that it is possible to connect young people representing all NATO member states if the right support for such an initiative exists. To move beyond tokenization and toward substantive engagement, young people and other under-represented groups must be involved not only as recipients of knowledge and skills, but also as contributors to decision-making and action-taking.

Second, it is important to include tangible steps toward action in all conversations about climate security, including high-level dialogues. There are a diversity of solutions already being implemented on the “ground floor” of a climate-affected world. Examples provided by scientists, military personnel, or peacebuilding, humanitarian, and development actors could reinvigorate and inspire policy action. Furthermore, in taking action on climate change, collaboration with Indigenous Peoples is critical. Often some of the most impacted communities, Indigenous Peoples also have deep connections to the land and possess traditional knowledge about its stewardship passed down for generations. The recent acceptance of Finland and Sweden into NATO presents new opportunities for such engagement and the Arctic Council has set a useful model of inclusion of Indigenous Peoples through its six Permanent Participants. The alliance could include permanent seats for Indigenous representatives in high-level conversations on climate security in order to drive more ambitious and inclusive solutions for all.

Third, NATO headquarters and leaders should prioritize engagement with its member states aimed at deepening their action on climate mitigation and adaptation. A suite of documents released at the 2023 NATO Summit provides a launching pad for this needed work. The second edition of the NATO Climate Change and Security Impact Assessment further solidifies the evidence base for the prominence of climate security risks across multiple regions relevant to the alliance and the urgency to act now. A Compendium of Best Practices on climate security action within NATO member states provides a foundation for fruitful collaboration between allies in taking urgent action. The publication of the NATO Greenhouse Gases Emission Mapping and Analytical Methodology is the start of a roadmap for reducing NATO’s emissions to meet its 2050 net zero target, which will help prevent climate change risks from multiplying further. While this emissions target and methodology applies only to NATO as an institutional body and not the militaries of its member states, it represents an opportunity for NATO to provide both the pressure and resources required for its members to follow through on similar commitments. 

As young leaders experiencing climate disasters across our home countries and watching them accelerate at a concerning pace, we know that security is not possible without action on climate change. We urge our leaders to act with this priority top of mind and work to build a world worth our imagination. 

Young Leaders to Bring Climate Security Priorities to the NATO Public Forum

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By Elsa Barron

On July 11th and 12th, the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS), with support from the U.S. Mission to NATO, will bring a delegation of six young leaders to the NATO Public Forum 2023, accompanied by the Center for Climate and Security’s Elsa Barron and IMCCS Secretary General, Sherri Goodman. Pau Alvarez Aragones (Spain), Diana Garlytska (Ukraine/ Lithuania), Marieke Jacobs (Netherlands), Michelle Ramirez (United States), George Tavridis (Greece), and Ytze de Vries (Netherlands) will be in attendance. They represent a group of twelve young leaders who were selected for the IMCCS young leaders network based on their video messages on the theme “Climate Security in My Backyard.”

In an April webinar and workshop, the group was joined by the U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Julianne Smith, who shared that young people’s unprecedented mobilization on the issue of climate change illustrates their underlying power to move mountains, or transform seemingly entrenched systems to create positive change. With this as inspiration, the group cultivated innovative ideas based on their experiences with climate security risks at home, as well as potential solutions to this transnational challenge, which they will bring with them to Vilnius.

Climate Security Risks

Workshop participants identified the direct risks of extreme weather, water scarcity, food insecurity (including in marine environments), permafrost thaw, and wildfire on the health and stability of their regions. Without clear and transparent plans to curtail climate change and address these increasingly extreme conditions, participants argued that it is challenging for their generation to feel secure, even in their own homes. 

The group also discussed the compound impacts of increasing temperatures and ecological change, which place additional strains on security. In conditions such as drought and permafrost thaw described above, more communities are facing the painstaking decision to leave home. These decisions can be extremely dangerous, exemplified by casualties along the sea crossing to countries in the northern Mediterranean. Climate change hazards also affect the security of healthcare systems already impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, unhealthy air due to wildfire smoke is now a regular summer occurrence in Alaska, making the environment unsafe and straining the healthcare system. 

Finally, the group identified important security risks connected to the response to climate change, particularly related to research and technology. Understanding and addressing climate change in the Arctic has become more complex since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent breakdown of scientific and policy cooperation. Participants also discussed new resource dependencies and unequal access to technology in the midst of the energy transition, which could result in additional internal and international tensions. For example, one participant expressed concerns about increasing political tensions in the Netherlands as farmers protest the perceived effect of emissions cuts on livelihoods rooted in agriculture. 

These climate security risks identified by young leader participants provide insight into why NATO allied citizens rank climate change or extreme weather as one of their top three concerns, even ahead of war, terrorism, and political instability. The NATO Summit and Public Forum in Vilnius should ignite renewed urgency to address these challenges.

Climate Security Solutions

In order to address these challenges, participants brainstormed solutions for NATO policymakers and NATO member states. These solutions included transparent and inclusive governance and adaptation and resilience building. 

Communities affected by climate change want to know what their leaders are doing to address the challenges they face and want decision-makers to listen to their priorities. Arctic representatives emphasized the importance of consultation with local residents (including those in isolated or remote areas) on Arctic climate and security issues. The new NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence in Canada provides one opportunity to expand NATO’s engagement in the Arctic and beyond, and could offer young leaders a seat at the table to help shape NATO’s climate security priorities. Transparency among NATO members and partners on climate security practice is common sense as nations address novel transboundary climate challenges. So is engagement with young allied citizens on issues that concern their future security. 

Participants also expressed a desire to see more foresight and preparation devoted to climate adaptation, particularly related to disaster risk reduction and recovery. Disaster response is a point of connectivity for NATO member states. One participant noted that Albania relies on air support from Greece to combat wildfires and multiple countries in the region have received support from NATO allies to fight fires. To help secure their future, young leaders want to see more forward planning and transparency on how NATO will respond to disasters in its member states as the frequency and intensity of these events increases. Within this conversation, participants particularly emphasized the importance of building resilience for everyone according to a justice framework – including those who may be geographically isolated or politically marginalized. 

The IMCCS young leaders delegation will bring these ideas and more to the 2023 NATO Public Forum in Vilnius. NATO has expanded its efforts to engage the next generation of thinkers and changemakers through efforts such as the NATO 2030 Young Leaders program, and they must continue to do so. In Vilnius, they have the opportunity to gain young leaders’ insights and bolster the alliance’s commitment to inclusive peace and security in a climate-changed world. 

For more information about this project:

Watch the webinar “Climate Security in NATO’s Backyard.”

Watch the project featured onstage at the 2023 NATO Youth Summit.

Visit the project homepage. 

New Report: Climate Security Scenarios in the Balkans

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By Brigitte Hugh and Erin Sikorsky

The Balkans region will experience significant climate change-related hazards, including droughts, heatwaves, tropical storms, and wildfires. Given the region’s reliance on hydropower, and its position as a highly trafficked land route for migration to the European Union, these climate impacts could result in cascading security risks.

In an interactive scenario exercise hosted by the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) Expert Group, adelphi, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) at the Berlin Climate Security Conference – hosted by adelphi and the German Federal Foreign Office – in October 2022, exercise participants identified two of the most important, or diagnostic, and uncertain drivers of change in the region – primary external investment sources (e.g. European Union [EU]/NATO or China) and regional cohesion.

Participants then created four future scenarios which explored how these drivers would combine with climate impacts to create security risks. Analysis of these scenarios yielded five key recommendations for NATO countries and EU leaders: 

  • Develop equitable climate resilience strategies to minimize regional divides
  • Leverage climate security engagement for cooperation
  • Adapt current interventions for climate engagement
  • Engage with stakeholders at different levels of governance
  • Invest in building civilian trust

The most important finding from the exercise is that the riskiest climate security scenario for the Balkans is one with no external engagement. In other words, some investment, regardless of the source, is better than none. 

The exercise is based on “Climate Security Snapshot: The Balkans”, a volume of the IMCCS Expert Group’s World Climate and Security Report 2022.

Read the full findings in the summary report here.

Download Full Report PDF

Pivoting Toward Climate Security: An Interview with Lt. Gen. Richard Nugee (ret.)

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By Elsa Barron

Lieutenant General Richard Nugee (ret.) recently joined the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) as a senior advisor. He is the Non-Executive Director for Climate Change and Sustainability for the UK Government. 

Previously, he spent a year leading the Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach at the Ministry of Defence at the end of his 36-year military career. The following conversation reflects on his pivot toward climate security and his priorities and hopes for future action. It has been edited for length and clarity. 

Elsa Barron: What led you to prioritize climate change toward the end of your military career?

Lt. Gen. Richard Nugee (ret.): I sat for four years on the executive committee of defense, and climate change wasn’t mentioned, sustainability wasn’t mentioned. I realized that actually, climate change was something that the UK military wasn’t really paying attention to. There were pockets of good practice. But broadly speaking, it wasn’t being considered on a daily basis, or on a yearly basis, or even on a review basis. And so I raised it as a subject and offered to do a report examining climate change and its effects on the military, and also the impact of the military on climate change. 

There was a general feeling, and it’s very common military thinking, that we will adapt to whatever the environment is. At the end of the day, we’ll just deal with what comes, and I don’t think that is enough. When it comes to climate change, I think there are very significant opportunities for the military, but there are also circumstances that the military will find very difficult to navigate if they haven’t planned ahead. And so what I tried to do in the UK military was provoke a discussion and debate on the issue and present opportunities for action.

Barron: Are there elements of your on-the-ground experience throughout your career that have elevated your concern about climate change? 

Nugee: One example is my experience as a battle group commander in southern Iraq. We didn’t have any air conditioning and we were living in the desert where generally, it’s a very dry heat averaging about 40-45 degrees Celsius, and you can mostly cope with that. But then things change for about two weeks of the year, they call it the cooker. For two weeks, the temperature rises to 50 to 55 degrees and the direction of the wind changes. Instead of coming off the dry deserts from the north, it comes from the south, and straight across the Gulf. As a result, you get 100% humidity at around 55 degrees Celsius and it’s almost unlivable. 

What I saw was my soldiers literally trying to avoid doing anything because it was too hot. A lot of soldiers were in the hospital for short periods. A few of my soldiers went back to the UK with heatstroke. And this was them doing their jobs. And it struck me that we were unprepared. If that is an example of what climate change is going to do to certain parts of the world as they heat up, it is going to be very difficult.

There are other examples; in Afghanistan, the fact that the snow was melting faster than normal in the Hindu Kush, meant that there were floods coming down the valleys. Instead of a gentle trickle of water all year round, you get a huge flood and then you get nothing. And if you get nothing, you don’t have water for irrigation. What we found was that farmers were rapidly turning to the Taliban as a source of income. There was no ideology at all, a very high percentage of those joining the Taliban were fighting for money, they were fighting to put food on the table of their families because the Taliban paid them five dollars a day. I think it’s desperately sad that people would turn to the Taliban to fight when actually all they wanted was to have a job.

Barron: Climate change has long been underappreciated as a security threat. Yet even in just the past five years, the conversation has accelerated greatly within institutions like the UK MOD and NATO. What is your perspective on these developments?

Nugee: There’s a really good example of these issues being brought right to the forefront in Europe in the last year. That’s because Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has deliberately, in my view, weaponized energy. Why is that relevant to climate change? Because, actually, for once we have an alternative to gas, we have an alternative to oil, and that is renewable energy. By weaponizing energy, Putin has highlighted the energy security implications of reliance on oil and gas. And by doing that, he has, I hope, encouraged many to think of renewable energy as a viable and cheap alternative to fossil fuels. Europe ought to be doing everything it can to build up its energy security, and it’s now largely within our grasp.

NATO countries are beginning to take this more seriously. It’s all very well talking about it, it’s all very well having horizon scanning as to what’s happening, but that’s not enough. I think we need to act, we need to act as militaries to take advantage of technologies and persuade politicians to try and support others with access to fewer resources. We need to build a narrative that says it is in our interest to do so. I mean, I’m being very clear. This is about national security. 

Barron: I’m curious, has there ever been a moment in your work when you’ve been surprised or challenged to change your perspective on something in light of the new challenges the world is facing?

Nugee: One thing which I suppose really surprised me was the huge flooding in Pakistan last year. It is, of course, not just climate change that has caused the floods in Pakistan. It’s a number of factors combined together. But actually, climate change has exacerbated the whole problem to the extent that a third of the country was underwater. Now, why is that a concern from a national security perspective? Because actually, what happened, and it happens in Bangladesh regularly with flooding, is that the military forces pick up the pieces and try and solve the problems that these floods cause. Well, if they are doing that, you have to ask, what are they not doing in terms of protecting their nation? 

Barron: What are your hopes for the next generation of climate security leaders and what advice would you give them?

Nugee: So I think there are two elements to this. The first is to embrace the opportunities that combating climate change gives us in terms of new technologies and innovation. Why wouldn’t we want to embrace new technologies that are better for capabilities and also reduce emissions? Look through a sustainability lens on everything you do, and you will end up much more efficient and effective. 

The second piece is to invest in climate resilience in countries abroad by providing training and supporting adaptation. This builds on the ability of our militaries to think strategically, which we’re usually quite good at. It is an opportunity to help countries cope with the effects of climate change, which ultimately builds up stability around the world- including in Europe.

2026 International Military Council on Climate and Security